SOTU FACT CHECK: PRESIDENT TRUMP’S ECONOMIC ‘COMEBACK’ BUILT ON FALSE NARRATIVE

January 31, 2018
Blog Post
President Trump Claim: "Since the election, we have created 2.4 million new jobs, including 200,000 new jobs in manufacturing alone.  After years of wage stagnation, we are finally seeing rising wages. Unemployment claims have hit a 45-year low…African-American unemployment stands at the lowest rate ever recorded, and Hispanic American unemployment has also reached the lowest levels in history." [State of the Union, 1/30/18]

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ECONOMIC ‘COMEBACK' BUILT ON FALSE NARRATIVE, TAKING CREDIT FOR ECONOMIC PROGRESS MADE UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA

  • When he was running for President, Trump regularly discreditedeconomicdata and economicexperts – calling them ‘phony,' ‘fiction,' and ‘fake.'

  • Now that he is President, Trump is touting these very numbers – many of them statistically similar or lower than President Obama's – to claim an economic rebound.

  • Job Creation:  Under President Trump, in 2017, 2.06 million jobs were created. However, that is lower than the 2.24 million jobs created in 2016 and is also lower than job creation in each of the previous six years.

  • Unemployment Rate:  Under President Obama, the unemployment rate fell from 10 percent to 4.8 percent – a decline of 5.2 percentage points.  Under President Trump, the unemployment rate has continued to decline, dropping from 4.8 percent to 4.1 percent – a total of 0.7 percentage points.

  • African American Unemployment Rate:  Under President Obama, the African American unemployment rate fell from 16.8 percent to 7.8 percent – a decline of 9 percentage points.  Under President Trump, the African American unemployment rate has fallen to 6.8 percent – a decline of 1 percentage point.

  • Economic Growth:  It was reported on Friday that economic growth for the year 2017 was 2.3 percent – much lower than the 3 percent President Trump had predicted. Indeed, comparing the increases in real GDP under Presidents Obama and Trump shows a "dead heat."

  • Wages: The stock market has continued to rise – breaking records for corporate America – but those gains are not trickling down to raise wages for hardworking Americans. Last year, wages rose just 2.5 percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CNN Money:Trump's first-year jobs record was strong. Just not as strong as Obama's last year: "Employers added more than 2 million jobs during 2017, making it a very good year for Donald Trump's first in office. But it's not quite as good as Barack Obama's last year on the job…"

Washington Post Fact Checker: Comparing the ‘Trump economy' to the ‘Obama economy:'"…Trump's economy owes largely to trends started in the Obama era. By almost every economic measure, the upward trends Sanders and Trump cite began while Obama was still in office."

Marketplace: How much credit should President Trump get for the economy?: "Among the wins Trump is set to highlight is the economy. But how much of the strong economy can really be attributed to an administration's first year? Economists say the president's regular tweets claiming responsibility for the booming stock market and low unemployment are a bit of a stretch."

Washington Post Fact Checker: Trump's embrace of African American employment data he once scorned: "… We're pleased the president is now using accurate statistics but it's absurd to suggest…that he had anything to do with these numbers."