SOTU FACT SHEET – President Trump: Failing Hard-Working American Families on Trade

Leading up to President Trump's State of the Union on Tuesday night, our office is sending out a series of reports entitled "President Trump: Failing Hard-Working American Families" on President Trump's record since he took office in 2017 and how his claims match up with reality. This is one of those reports.

IN PRESIDENT TRUMP'S OWN WORDS:

• "Our people haven't paid [the tariffs], as you know… So we're taking in many billions of dollars. There's been absolutely no inflation. And frankly, it hasn't cost our consumers anything; it costs China." [8/1/2019]
• "I think our tariffs are very good for us. We're taking in tens of billions of dollars. China is paying for it." [8/24/2019]

THE FACTS: AMERICAN FARMERS & FAMILIES PAYING HIGH PRICE OF TRUMP TRADE WARS

• American farmers face an increasingly stressful and uncertain future as the Trump Trade War escalates every day. While American farmers are on the sidelines thanks to this Administration, Brazil, China, Canada and beyond are reaping the benefits of increased market access and agriculture trade surpluses. In 2019, family farm bankruptcies rose 20 percent reaching an eight-year high. And nearly one-third of projected net farm income comes from farm subsidies to offset the impact of President Trump's failed trade policies on the agriculture sector.
• According to FDIC and Federal Reserve, farmers struggled in 2019— unable to pay their loans, held the most farm debt in decades and saw more banks pull back from farm lending.
• The CBO estimates that Trump's tariffs will reduce the level of real GDP by 0.5 percent and raise consumer prices by 0.5 percent in 2020 – reducing real family incomes by $1,277 (in 2019 dollars) this year.

THE FACTS: TRUMP'S ORIGINAL USMCA DRAFT LET MEXICO KEEP CHEATING AND INCLUDED MASSIVE GIVEAWAYS TO BIG PHARMA

• President Trump signed into law USMCA that is drastically different than the weak draft agreement he first put forward – transformed by Democrats' success in rewriting key sections of the agreement for American workers, for prescription drugs, for environmental protections and for creating the strongest enforcement mechanisms of any U.S. trade agreement.

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THE FACTS: TRUMP'S ‘PHASE 1' TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA FULL OF THE SAME EMPTY PROMISES CHINA HAS BROKEN FOR DECADES

• New York Times: The U.S.-China Trade Deal Leaves Many Questions Unanswered [1/15/2020]

What the U.S.-China trade deal leaves out:

President Trump and Vice Premier Liu He of China will meet at the White House today to sign a phase-one trade agreement meant to ease tensions between Washington and Beijing. But there are still plenty of unresolved issues.

• A big one is how seriously China will hold itself accountable, Ana Swanson of the NYT writes. Critics say Beijing's promises "appear both broad and vague and overlap with other changes it has been pursuing anyway."
• Beijing did not pledge to refrain from hacking U.S. companies, particularly to steal intellectual property. Chinese officials say it isn't a trade issue.
• Bigger changes to China's economy, like subsidies to its commercial giants, remain under negotiation.

• Factcheck.org: Trump Exaggerates China Trade Impact on Farmers – "The bottom line […] is that U.S. farmers won't know the impact of the new trade agreement until the end of this year. What we do know is that the deal won't ‘boost American agriculture by $50 billion every year,' as Trump said, and there is no language in it that requires China to purchase a total of $50 billion a year." [1/31/2020]