The New NIE on Iraq: Is This What The Bush Administration Calls Progress?

August 23, 2007
Blog Post
"It appears to me...there is some progress being made."

-- President Bush, August 21, 2007

Today, the National Intelligence Council released an unclassified summary of the most recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq. The report paints a grim picture of the political and security situation in Iraq and is at odds with the President's assessment.

"[T]he level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq's sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI [al Qaeda in Iraq] retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively." (pg. 1)

"Broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments." (pg. 1)

"Intra-Shia conflict involving factions competing for power and resources probably will intensify as Iraqis assume control of provincial security...The Sunni Arab community remains politically fragmented, and we see no prospective leaders that might engage in meaningful dialogue and deliver on national agreements... Kurdish leaders remain focused on protecting the autonomy of the Kurdish region and reluctant to compromise on key issues." (pg. 2)

"[W]e judge that the ISF [Iraqi Security Forces] have not improved enough to conduct major operations independent of the Coalition on a sustained basis in multiple locations and that the ISF remain reliant on the Coalition for important aspects of logistics and combat support." (pg. 2)

"The IC [Intelligence Community] assesses that the Iraqi Government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition (the Unified Iraqi Alliance, UIA), Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties." (pg. 3)

"Population displacement resulting from sectarian violence continues, imposing burdens on provincial governments and some neighboring states and increasing the danger of destabilizing influences spreading across Iraq's borders over the next six to 12 months." (pg. 3)